计量经济作业代做 Econometric Models to Review

Econometric Models to Review

计量经济作业代做 Machine learning can be used to target programs within the criminal justice system.  Applications to the bail program in

Key Papers  计量经济作业代做

Becker-  Individuals may choose to commit crime based on potential utility gain.  Higher odds of being caught, punishment severity, and income outside of crime may reduce crime.

Levitt -   Finds police reduce crime.  Instruments police with election cycles.  Results turned out to be sensitive and have programming issues.

Chalfin and McCrary- Instrument two measures of police enforcement with each other.  This does not deal with omitted variable bias, but does address measurement error.  They find strong evidence more police is associated with less crime.

Hansen -  Finds repeat drunk driving (Recidivism) declines when punishments increase at BAC thresholds of .08 and .15 in WA.

Buanno and Raphael -  Find a mass release of prisoners in Italy is associated with an increase in crime.

Schnepel – Find prisoners reoffend less (recidivate less) when economic conditions are more favorable.

Anderson -  Find that mandatory education requirements in US reduced crime.

Dobkin and Nicosia – Find that introducing meth precursor bans resulted in higher prices and lower purity.  The effects were short lived as prices quickly reverted to their previous levels within 2 years.

Doleac - New technologies such as DNA databases may be effective reducing in crime.  This could happen through deterrence, increased probabilities of catching criminals, higher conviction rates, and longer sentences.

Owens – Alcohol prohibition in the United States increased homicides due to increases organized crime and greater systemic violence.

Kleinburg et al. -  We can reduce either crime keep the jail pop. Constant, or reduce jail pop. Keeping crime constant through using targeting models based on machine learning.

Agan and Starr -  Those with criminal records are less likely to get call backs.  Ban the box criminal record box results in fewer call backs for black males and more call backs for white males.

Consensus of Several Papers ---  计量经济作业代做

Evidence that MTO has weak effects on youth criminality.  Less referrals to office but no effects on crime.  Find evidence that MTO improves earnings for young individuals (those under 12) who move to better neighborhoods.

Legal access to alcohol increases crime.

Emotional cues such as close sports defeats increase intrafamiliar violence.

Violent movies, and violent video games are associated with less violence.

Illegal Drugs -- Making drugs legal could result in less systemic violence but more psychopharmacological violence.  This tradeoff is different across each drug. Also substitution away from more dangerous legal drugs could occur (for instance alcohol to marijuana).

Banning meth precursors temporarily reduces prices and decreases quality.  Crime rates has no change. Within two years prices and quality return to their original levels.

Gun Violence -  Research on gun shows suggests gun shows have essentially 0 effect on subsequent homicides or suicides.  Research on stand your ground laws suggests that stand your ground laws are associated with increases in homicides.

Assaults, property crime, and DUI’s, selling alcohol to minors increase when people get legal access to alcohol.  Rape and robbery are essentially unchanged.  Rapes and sexual assaults increase on college football game days, particularly for home games.

Mass incarceration is largely driven by increases in the probability of conviction and average sentence length due to policies such as truth in sentencing laws and mandatory minimum punishments.

Machine learning might improve prediction.  Less people in jail with same failure to appear rate.  Lower fail to appear rate, same amount in jail.  Maybe less discriminatory.

Violent crime increases when its warmer outside, and decreases when it rains.

Cognitive behavioral therapy can reduce violent crime and increase academic achievement.

Recent evidence that ban the box (BTB) laws increase statistical discrimination.

Machine learning can be used to target programs within the criminal justice system.  Applications to the bail program in New York City find machine learning and prediction can either keep the failure to appear the same and reduce the number of people in jail, or reduce the number of people in jail and keep the failure to appear rate the same.

Key Definitions

Becker model of crime –

General deterrence (from criminality) -

Specific deterrence (from criminality) -

Expected Wealth -

Expected utility -

Risk Aversion -

Incapacitation  -

Negative criminogenic effects -

Moving to opportunity -

Public Goods –

Monopoly –

Systemic Violence –

Psychopharmacological Violence –

Prohibition -

DNA Databases-

Ban the Box –

Taste Based Discrimination –

Statistical Discrimination -

Stand Your Ground Laws -

Cournot Competition -

Drug Trafficking Organization –

Tragedy of the Commons -

Truth in- sentencing laws -

Machine Learning  -

Targeting Model -

Hit Rate - (from traffic stops or searches)

Econometric Models to Review

OLS – Key assumption to be unbiased?

Also what is beta if X is a binary regressor (dummy variable)?

IV – Key assumption(s)  to be unbiased?

RD – Example of an RD (threshold, running variables, etc.)

Difference-in-Difference

Finding 95 percent confidence intervals and hypothesis testing

Theory Models to Review  计量经济作业代做

Expected Utility (Which punishment regimes are greater deterrents)

Demand for public goods

Monopoly

Cournot Competition

Statistical Discrimination Models (econometric application of)

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