OP TITLE: ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND CRIME: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRAZILIAN TRADE LIBERALIZATION
犯罪经济学essay代写 There were several challenges in trying to reproduce the results that the authors had earlier obtained. One of the challenges
Student’s Name: Jun Wang
Institutional Affiliation: The University of Sidney
OP Title: Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from The Brazilian Trade Liberalization
Instructor’s Name: Dr. Emilia Tjernstrm & Dr. Chandana Maitra 犯罪经济学essay代写
1. Introduction 犯罪经济学essay代写
The study conducted by (Dix-Carneiro, Soares, and Ulyssea, 2018, p.3) is on Brazil, which has been ranked by the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime as the top country globally facing numerous cases of homicides in 2012 with over 50000 homicide occurrences annually, with 25.2 homicides per 100000 Brazilian inhabitants.
It is quite a critical study as it focused on providing measurable estimates of the effects of economic shocks on criminal activity and making progress in understanding the mechanisms behind this effect. The study also contributes to the growing economic literature, which emphasises adjustment shocks to trade shocks beyond those associated with the labor market (Dix-Carneiro, Soares and Ulyssea, 2018, p17-21). Furthermore, it also contributes to the literature on the effects of labor market conditions on crime.
The key research question of the study was: How do transitions in economic conditions affect crime in Brazilian trade Liberalization. The research focused on Brazilian trade liberalization since it implemented a large-scale unilateral trade between 1990 and 1995. The trade shock that was exploited in the study was discrete in time and permanent. Thus the methodology proposed by (Carneiro and Kovak, 2015, p 9-28)and the evolution of crime response to regional tariff changes was empirically described. 犯罪经济学essay代写
The study led to several interesting findings on the economic shocks and crime. The main results were: the regions which were exposed to more considerable tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization, the shocks had significant effects in potential determinants of crime such as labor, market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality.
Section 2 of this study focuses on describing the replication data and the code provided. Section 3 of this replication study focuses on describing the reproduction and replication of the study and the challenges that were faced in the replication process. Section 4 focuses on the typology of replications and explains my planned approach on extending the work done by proposing a meaningful extension to the previous work that has been done.
2. Data
Several replication datasets were used in this study. These datasets included: 1980 census raw data, 1991 census raw data, 2000 census raw data, 2010 census raw data, homicides/ crime rate data, suicides/ suicide rate data, labor market data, and formal wage bill data of each region. The provided codes were for: processing the raw census data for each year, computation of the wage bill, performing summary statistics, cleaning and merging of datasets, and construction of the variables used in the paper. The data provided was in STATA files since they did have dta as extension file names. The authors also included doing files in separate scripts, which run the process of the data and run the analysis. They have also included text files that explain the data in detail.
3. Pure Replication 犯罪经济学essay代写
3.1 Reproduction and Discussion
I reproduced the summary statistics for homicide/ crime rate (per 100,000 inhabitants) in Table 10 of the study and obtained the results, which are shown in table 1 below:
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------
homicid~1991 | 4,534 6.782091 73.11566 0 4211
homicid~2000 | 5,428 8.356669 99.50892 0 6102
homicid~2010 | 5,428 9.627856 57.96933 0 1854
As observed in the table above, there were several similarities between the study on the primary research and the reproduced results. One of the similarities was the homicide rates were most significant in 2010 and least in 1991. I, however, obtained different results as compared to the initial results obtained in the main study. The standard deviations of the reproduced results were more significant than the data obtained in the earlier study, and the means obtained in the produced results were smaller compared to the results obtained in the previous study.
3.2 Code challenges
There were several challenges in trying to reproduce the results that the authors had earlier obtained. One of the challenges was that the code of getting the data for the authors was not working in my statistical software. Furthermore, some codes were too complicated for me to understand. The STATA version used by the authors seems to have been STATA 17, whereas I was using STATA 15.
4 Roadmap 犯罪经济学essay代写
This replication study will focus on employing another approach to provide measurable effects of economic shocks on criminal activity.
4.1 Innovation
The proposed method for providing the measurable effects of economic shocks on criminal activity will be regression analyses. This is because a regression analysis model can predict criminal activity in the event of different measures of economic shocks and also measure the effect of economic shocks on criminal activity(Grömping, 2015, p 137-152).
4.2 Approach 犯罪经济学essay代写
The previous study employed the following equation since time was a discrete variable in the dataset:
log (CRr,t) − log (CRr,1991) = ξt + θtRT Cr + ξr,t, (1) where CRr,t is the crime rate in region r at time t > 1991.
I will, however, focus on a regression analysis model summarized in this equation:
log (CR)= ß0+ß1x
Where: Log (CR) refers to the log of the criminal activity rate, and X in the new model refers to the measured economic shock.
4.3 Roadmap 犯罪经济学essay代写
References 犯罪经济学essay代写
Carneiro, R. D., and Kovak, B. K. (2015) 'Trade Reform and Regional Dynamics: Evidence from 25 Years of Brazilian Matched Employer-Employee Data', SSRN Electronic Journal. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2594749.
Dix-Carneiro, R., Soares, R. R. and Ulyssea, G. (2018) 'Economic shocks and crime: Evidence from the Brazilian trade liberalization, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. DOI: 10.1257/app.20170080.
Grömping, U. (2015) 'Variable importance in regression models,' Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics. DOI: 10.1002/wics.1346.
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