风险分析作业代写 Risk Analysis 期末代考

Risk Analysis

Final Exam (January 13, 2020)

风险分析作业代写 But despite the fact that the fire no longer posed a threat, Zhang Mo, a plant retiree, remained deeply concerned.

Instructions:  风险分析作业代写

(i) You must submit your final exam in PDF or Word format via email to the TA by Monday January 20. Your exam file must use single space, Times New Roman font, 12 point size, and cannot exceed 5 pages.

(ii) You are not limited to the information presented in this file, that is.  You can refer to any published materials such as news articles, government reports, etc. You must provide the link to the source materials that you refer to. Unreliable or subjective information such as web blogs are not acceptable.

(iii) You must take the exam independently, that is, do not discuss the exam questions with anyone while taking the exam.

As reported by a China Daily article (see Pages 2-5), the Dalian oil plant of CNPC had encountered 5 serious incidents over a 14 month period. The main objective for this case study is to assess the risks faced by the plant and the local residents.

(1) Suppose the Dalian plant employs 5,000 workers. The international standard accident rate for oil plants is 1 serious accident per 10,000 worker-year.  Which translates into an average of 0.5 serious accident per year for an “ordinary” oil plant with 5,000 workers. What is the probability that an ordinary oil plant with 5,000 workers can have 5 or more serious accidents over a 14 month period?

(2) Some officials claim that there is nothing wrong with the management of the Dalian plant (i.e., the plant is considered “ordinary”). And the incidents are merely the results of “bad luck” or “random events”. Based on the probability you found in part (1), can you support or reject their claim? How much risk (i.e., Type I or Type II error) are you willing to take in making your decision?  风险分析作业代写

(3) Suppose 70% of all accidents (not limited to those at the Dalian plant) are caused by equipment failures and 30% are caused by human errors. If an accident is caused by equipment failure, there is a 80% probability that the accident is minor (e.g., minor injury) and a 20% probability that the accident is serious (e.g., explosion). If an accident is caused by human error, there is a 10% probability that the accident is minor and a 90% probability that the accident is serious. When a serious accident occurs, what is the probability that the accident was caused by human error? Why is this probability greater than 50% even though only 30% of all accidents are caused by human errors?

(4) Perform the 5-step risk analysis as given on page 10 of the course packet. You should make use of your findings in previous parts. Moreover, in Step 1, find the causes and consequences of the risk factors you identify. In Step 3, explain which risk factors have the most impact in terms of effect and uncertainty. In Step 5, discuss what judgment biases the decision makers (CNPC, local government) may have and what they should do to avoid these biases.

Oil plants feel the heat Updated: 2011-09-02 By Zhang Xiaomin and He Na (China Daily)

It took 300 firefighters and 50 fire trucks three hours to conquer the blaze on Monday at the Dalian plant of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

But despite the fact that the fire no longer posed a threat, Zhang Mo, a plant retiree, remained deeply concerned. "The fire erupted in the storage area where more than 40 oil tanks of different sizes are located. The smallest one holds 5,000 cubic meters," he said. "Some liquid gas tanks are not far away. It could have been disastrous."

Jin Yong, the son of a plant retiree, said: "It's the fifth major incident at the plant in just over a year. How many accidents will occur before the company improves plant safety? I am anxious because my parents live just across the street." He once planned to sell his parents' apartment and buy another but the selling price was too low. "Except for the people who work in the plant, who is crazy enough to move here?" he said.

The thick black smoke from the fire eventually dissipated but concerns over safety at petrochemical complexes linger.

Jiang Jiemin, CNPC's general manager. Promised to thoroughly investigate the cause of Monday's fire. In a bid to show its determination, the company removed Jiang Fan as general manager of the Dalian plant on Tuesday. "

Every time after an incident, the company swears it will investigate thoroughly to prevent similar incidents," said Ma Jun.  Director of the nongovernmental Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs. "But the fact is, they never do, they never announce the real reason to the public. I do hope this time the case won't end up with 'nothing conclusive'."  风险分析作业代写

Ma Zhong, director of the school of environment and natural resources at Renmin University of China, said, "It's time for the government to take harsh measures to brace for the environmental problems triggered by these State-owned monopoly enterprises, or else it will be too late."

The fire came just two weeks after 12,000 citizens protested in front of the city government building to demand closure of a paraxylene (PX) chemical plant operated by a different company. "

The frequent incidents at Dalian plant indicate it has serious problems in management and did not absorb the lessons from the former incidents," Ma Jun said. "The public has the right to know the truth of any incident that threatens their health or lives. There are no minor incidents in a high-risk industry. To raise the safety awareness of every member of the company is the most effective way to reduce safety hazards."

3

Real plans, penalties  风险分析作业代写

Every high-risk plant is required to have an emergency response plan, "but not all the plants follow the rule," Ma Jun said. "Take last July's incident at the plant, for instance. When the oil tank exploded and needed water to cool the tank, staff members found that the emergency water tap did not have water at all."

Environmental hazards inspections need to be carried out in detail and not be a performance for leaders, he said.

The point can be made, experts said, by raising the penalties for violating the environment and the law. "

Our current cost for unlawful activity is still too low to draw attention," Ma said, especially for an energy monopoly company like CNPC with its large profit margin.

Economic power

Mark China's small and large petrochemical plants on a map, and they will cover almost all 18,000 km of coastline. In many places, such as Tianjin and Liaoning, Hebei and Jiangsu provinces, it's common to find chemical operations doing similar work. "

Since petrochemical projects have an immediate effect in boosting local GDP and expanding revenue, many local officials choose development ahead of environmental protection whether they are suited to the locations or not," Ma said. "

Many petrochemical projects do not have detailed environmental feasibility reports before operation, and these kinds of projects no doubt have major environmental risks," Lu Bin, a professor of urban and environmental sciences at Peking University, was quoted as saying by 21st Century Business Herald.  风险分析作业代写

CNPC's Dalian plant is the only operation in the city with annual sales revenue over 80 billion yuan, so its development plays a decisive role in the local economy. However, Lu said, "Officials need to be cautious in attracting investments, and learn to say no to high-pollution projects."

The situation is similar in other areas around Bohai Bay. Liaoning, Tianjin and Shandong are all on a rapid pace to develop the petrochemical industry.

Early in 2006, what is now the Ministry of Environmental Protection conducted a risk survey of the country's 7,555 petrochemical projects, with some startling results.

It found that 81 percent of the operations were situated in populous areas along the banks of rivers, lakes and oceans, and 45 percent were identified as posing major high risk. At least 1,000 chemical plants were surrounded by residential areas or set upstream from urban drinking water sources.

The malady of such patterns emerged as more incidents - oil spills, chemical leaks and refinery explosions - threatened the safety of the area, said Zheng Husheng, a researcher at Jilin Provincial Academy of Social Sciences. "The irrational layout greatly aggravated harm to cities, rivers and oceans when an incident happened," he said.

Right to the truth  风险分析作业代写

In many foreign countries, choosing a site for a petrochemical plant requires extensive research.  Surveys and permission from the public, such as surrounding residents. "However, in China, the process is totally different," Ma Jun said. "

The enterprises sign the contract with local government and they began construction. In many cases, it is not until the enterprises have some incidents that the public knows what the companies are producing and whether the process can harm their health and living environment. "

The public has the right to know the facts of public affairs," Ma said, "but in many cases, such as choosing locations for petrochemical companies. People's rights are disfranchised. If governments and enterprises really want to ease mounting tensions with the public.  They must guarantee the people's right to learn the truth and let the common people be involved."  风险分析作业代写

The following list for your reference.

12 Angry Men (1957)

dir: Sidney Lumet

key: hypothesis testing (Type I error), judgment and choice biases

A Brutal Game (1983)

dir: Jean-Claude Brisseau

key: observe and simplify, pitfalls of human nature

Casino (1995)

dir: Martin Scorsese

key: gambling = insurance = protection racket = financial derivatives

Moneyball (2011)

dir: Bennett Miller

key: statistical modeling, big data, uncertainty aversion

Once Upon a Time in the West (1968)

dir: Sergio Leone

key: risk and excitement of a new world (film industry)

Rain Man (1988)

dir: Barry Levinson

key: conditional probability, Monty Hall problem, endowment effect

Wall Street (1987)

dir: Oliver Stone

key: risks of financial markets, cost and benefit of corruption

Zero Dark Thirty (2012)

dir: Kathryn Bigelow

key: decision making under uncertainty, Bayesian analysis

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